About us

Investing Simplified

Our approach is to make complicated invement models simple and easy to understand

About The Boring Bull

The Boring Bull is a website that educates and demonstrates the power of Quantitative Investing. Our model uses a variety of financial indicators, macro indicators and overrides to create the best odds of success. Quant models rely on algorithmic or systematically programmed investment strategies. As such, they don't use the experience, judgment, or opinions of human managers to make investment decisions. Our hope is that you can see how a quant model works and be inspired to build your own.

About The Author

What indicators do we use?

Our model uses a variety of indicators including but not limited to:

  1. Macro Indicators: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Shiller Index, and Volatility.
  2. Technical Indicators: MACD, RSI, CCI, Stocastic, Moving Averages, Exponential Averages, MFI, Higher High and Lower Low and Candles.
  3. Configuration Variables: 34 configuration variables and model overrides.

Card Counting

Imagine for a moment you are playing blackjack with a card counter. What are their odds versus yours? Depending on your bet spread and the rules, a card counter typically has a 1% edge on all money wagered. Assuming you employ basic strategy perfectly, the typical house edge is 0.5%. Your typical gambler has a disadvantage closer to 2% because of basic strategy errors like missing doubles or standing on soft eighteen. Our model is very similar in that we use statistics to count the market. What are our odds of winning? Close to 84%, a card counter’s dream.

What observations can you make about the market?

Markets Go Up

Over long periods of time, stock markets go up in value

Markets Correct

Occasionly, the market goes into a correction but recovers over time

Markets Oscillate

Look closely and you will notice that markets oscillate

Our model considers the three observations listed above. The first observation is that markets go up over the long term which drives us to bet on the upside of the market. The model doesn’t bet on the market corrections, only long-term growth. We also do not use hedge funds or any sophisticated investment strategies.

Second, markets do correct from time to time. Although rare, the model has a series of overrides that look for a correction. For example, volatility is a measure of the turbulence of the market looking 30 days out. The more volatile a market is, the greater the odds of a correction. Like COVID-19, not all corrections can be predicted using indicators.

Finally, the market oscillates which means the market moves into periods where it is over sold or over bought. We use several indicators to help us see this oscillation in order know when to jump into the Stock Market and when to jump out. No model is perfect, we just hope to catch as many waves as possible.